The Overall Sentiment in the Futures Market Is Relatively Positive; The Most-Traded BC Copper Contract Closed Higher [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

SMM, January 17: Today, the most-traded BC copper 2502 futures contract opened at 67,700 yuan/mt and closed with a bullish candlestick, with the Bollinger upper band crossing the candlestick body. Overnight, the most-traded BC copper contract saw bears increase open interest after the opening, with the futures market testing a low of 67,600 yuan/mt before the center shifted upward. During the morning trading session, as bulls entered the market, the futures market fluctuated higher, breaking through the 68,000 yuan/mt level. In the afternoon trading session, the BC copper 2502 contract fluctuated rangebound, reaching a high of 68,110 yuan/mt and ultimately closing at 68,040 yuan/mt, up 630 yuan/mt or 0.93%. The increase was mainly driven by bulls increasing open interest, with open interest reaching 5,238 lots, up 372 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 5,247 lots, down 2,165 lots from the previous trading day.

Macro side, US December retail sales month-on-month recorded 0.4%, below expectations and the previous value. Combined with previously released inflation data, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts slightly improved, and the US dollar index weakened overnight. Domestic GDP-related data was released during the day, with market sentiment leaning positive, and copper prices closed higher.

The SHFE copper 2502 contract closed at 76,410 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2502 contract price of 68,040 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is approximately 76,885 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2502 contract and the BC copper 2502 contract stood at -475 yuan/mt, with the spread remaining inverted and widening compared to the previous trading day.